Palabras mayores en Inditex JOAQUÍN TAMAMES (Expansión)

Los resultados de Inditex en el año fiscal cerrado el 31 de enero de 2018 sorprenden en positivo y mantienen al grupo en otra liga respecto de sus competidores. Las ventas crecen un 9% hasta 25.336 millones (+10% a tipo de cambio constante y +5% en términos comparables), el ebitda un 4% hasta 5.277 millones (+8% a tipo constante), el beneficio operativo un 7% hasta 4.314 millones (+12% a tipo constante) y el beneficio neto un 7% hasta 3.368 millones. La provisión por impuesto de sociedades suma 979 millones, con una tasa efectiva del 22,5%. Como esperado, el cuarto trimestre ha ralentizado el cierre del año, pero las cifras son potentes a pesar de la caída de 1,5 puntos de margen bruto: crecimiento de ventas del 6,7%, caída de ebitda del 1,3% y aumento del beneficio neto del 7,9%. Siendo su peso mayor al de los otros trimestres por el impacto de la Navidad (el cuatro trimestre ha supuesto el 29,1% de las ventas totales), su impacto en resultados es también mayor al resto. Pero en todo el ejercicio el ROE y el ROCE repiten en el 26% y el 33%, respectivamente, y la posición neta de tesorería al cierre del trimestre es de 6.387 millones. En el año completo, los márgenes del grupo disminuyen ligeramente: el bruto baja 70 puntos básicos hasta el 56,3% (56,8% a tipo constante), el margen ebitda 100 p.b. hasta el 20,8% y el margen operativo 20 p.b. hasta el 17,2%. Teniendo en cuenta la fortaleza del euro, que encarece las compras en dólares, se trata de caídas leves, y, con todo, la rentabilidad sigue siendo la más alta del sector. Los ratios de Inditex siguen evidenciando notable excelencia operativa.En la evolución de las ventas destacan tres factores: el primero, el aumento del 41% en las ventas online, que suponen el 10% de las totales y el 12% de las ventas en los mercados con presencia online; el segundo, la penalización por la fortaleza del euro; el tercero, el crecimiento del 5% en las ventas comparables, que contrasta con el crecimiento del 10% del año anterior pero que sigue siendo un dato comparativamente muy favorable con el sector, tanto en términos absolutos como relativos. En cuanto a las tiendas, las absorciones, eufemismo de cierres o integración en otras tiendas mayores, alcanzan a 341 tiendas, el doble que en 2016, lo que evidencia una gran atención a los cambios en el mercado retail con el objetivo de optimización de la superficie. A 31 de enero, el número de tiendas suma 7.475 (+183 aperturas netas). En 2017 las inversiones ordinarias del grupo alcanzaron 1.545 millones (+8%) y a ello hay que sumar 256 millones de extraordinarias. Inditex capitaliza (cierre de ayer) 75.600 millones de euros y la acción ha perdido un 33,5% respecto del máximo de 36,9 euros de principios de verano pasado, cotizando en la actualidad a un PER 2017 de 22,5 veces y a un PER 2018 de 20,8 veces. Al precio actual, con la subida del dividendo el 10,3% hasta 0,75 euros, la rentabilidad es del 3,1%. El descuento es excesivo en relación con los fuertes fundamentales.En conjunto, las cifras de Inditex en 2017 son muy buenas. El grupo sigue creciendo y en las primeras seis semanas del primer trimestre de 2019 hasta el 11 de marzo, las ventas a tipo constante aumentan el 9%. El desempeño del grupo sigue siendo sobresaliente, los fundamentales muy firmes, los indicadores robustos. Son todo palabras mayores.

25 comentarios sobre “Palabras mayores en Inditex JOAQUÍN TAMAMES (Expansión)

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