Los grandes bancos españoles y europeos superan con holgura el escenario más adverso en las pruebas de estrés

Todos los grandes bancos españoles y europeos han superado con holgura las pruebas de estrés a las que les ha sometido la Autoridad Bancaria Europea (ABE) certificando que cuentan con capital suficiente para afrontar un empeoramiento grave de la economía, según los resultados publicados este viernes. Entre las 48 entidades examinadas están cuatro banco españoles, Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank y Sabadell, que también han demostrado que resisten al escenario económico más adverso planteado.

Aunque la ABE no especifica si un banco está aprobado o suspenso, se considera que una entidad es capaz de resistir el peor escenario, planteado a finales de 2020, si cuenta con un capital de calidad (CET1) del 5,5%.

El mejor resultado entre las entidades españolas lo obtiene el Banco Santander que contaría con una ratio “fully loaded” -teniendo en cuenta las futuras exigencias de capital- del 9,20%, lo que le coloca como el más solvente, por encima de CaixaBank, con el 9,11%, BBVA el 8,80% y Sabadell, el 7,58%.

Al margen de los españoles, los que tendrían una peor solvencia en ese escenario son los británicos Barclays (6,37) y Lloyds (6,80%) y el italiano BPM (6,67%). En el lado contrario, los mejor situados son el alemán NRW que sobresale con un 33,96% y el holandés Nederlandse Gemeenten, con el 22,33%.

Otros grandes bancos que superan con margen la prueba son el alemán Deutsche Bank que logra un 8,14% y ligeramente por encima, el francés BNP Paribas tendría un 8,64%.
Una tasa de paro de casi el 16% en España

La ABE ha evaluado la respuesta de las entidades ante un escenario en el que el Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) de la Unión Europea (UE) acumularía una desviación del 8,3% en 2020 respecto a las estimaciones del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), una contracción que en anteriores pruebas se limitaba al 7,1%.

Este escenario al que ha sometido a las entidades supondría además un aumento del desempleo del 3,3% en la UE en 2020, una caída en el índice de precios de consumo armonizado (IPCA) del 1,9% y un descenso del 27,7% del precio de las propiedades residenciales por debajo del marco más realista.

En el caso de España, según las condiciones fijadas por la ABE para los test, los crecimientos anuales del entorno al 2% previstos en el escenario base se convierten en el escenario adverso en un retroceso del 0,3% del PIB este año, una caída del 1,5% el año que viene y un rebote del 1,1% en 2020.

En cuanto al paro, la reducción de la tasa de desempleo española que pronostica el escenario base desaparecería en el adverso, donde se contempla un nuevo aumento que llevaría ese ratio de parados a rozar de nuevo el 16% en 2019.

El diseño de ese escenario ha tenido en cuenta asimismo los riesgos que presenta para la economía comunitaria la próxima salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea, prevista para el próximo marzo.
El escenario más adverso desde 2011

La Autoridad Bancaria Europea (ABE) ha sometido a los test de estrés a las entidades continentales que cuentan con un mínimo de 30.000 millones de euros en activo, que representan el 70% de los activos totales del sector bancario de la eurozona, para comprobar su resistencia ante un hipotético escenario adverso, el más severo desde que comenzaron a realizarse en 2011.

En línea con el criterio que adoptó hace dos años, cuando los seis grandes bancos españoles resistieron al peor escenario de los test, la ABE no califica a los bancos con aprobados ni suspensos, sino que divulga indicadores que permitan identificar problemas en sus balances y posibles necesidades de capital.

En 2016, la ABE decidió dejar de establecer umbrales mínimos para aprobar o suspender el test, si bien tan solo una entidad, el italiano Monte Paschi di Siena, se situó por debajo del límite de referencia.

A pesar de que no hay un umbral de referencia oficial que los bancos deben superar, los mercados suelen considerar que las entidades con un porcentaje de capital de máxima calidad (CET1) por debajo del 5,5% en un escenario adverso pueden necesitar ampliar sus recursos o deshacerse de activos de riesgo.

En 2014, las pruebas de resistencia dieron como resultado 25 bancos que no superaban el umbral del 5,5% de capital de calidad en el escenario adverso, por lo que el regulador les calificó como suspensos.
El BCE: “Las entidades de crédito de la zona euro son más resistentes”

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) considera que los resultados de las pruebas de resistencia de la ABE muestran que “las entidades de crédito de la zona del euro son más resistentes a perturbaciones financieras” que hace dos años.

Pese a que el escenario adverso es más severo que en la prueba de 2016, la ratio media de capital ordinario de nivel 1 (CET1) de las 33 entidades participantes al final del período de tensión de tres años era más elevada, situándose en el 9,9%, frente al 8,8% de hace dos años.

“Gracias también a nuestra supervisión, los bancos han aumentado considerablemente sus niveles de capital, a la vez que han reducido sus préstamos dudosos y han mejorado sus controles internos y la gobernanza de los riesgos”, ha señalado la presidenta del Consejo de Supervisión del BCE, Danièle Nouy, en declaraciones recogidas por Efe.

Por su parte, el Banco Central Europeo (BCE), en su calidad de supervisor bancario, ha llevado a cabo unas pruebas similares a unas 60 entidades adicionales que se encuentran bajo su vigilancia directa.

51 comentarios sobre “Los grandes bancos españoles y europeos superan con holgura el escenario más adverso en las pruebas de estrés

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    Kurye olarak hizmet veren kişiler, bulundukları lokasyondaki her adrese en kısa sürede ulaşma yolunu bilirler. Üstelik verilen bu görevi hava, trafik ve buna benzer diğer olumsuz şartlardan etkilenmeden yerine getirirler. Yani iş hayatı başta olmak üzere hayatın hemen her alanında önemli görevleri üstlenebilir ve başarıyla yerine getirebilirler. Özellikle büyük şehirlerdeki trafik kaosu ve adres konusundaki karmaşa göze alınırsa, kurye hizmetlerinden faydalanmanın bazı durumlarda zorunlu hale geleceği anlaşılabilir. Örneğin İstanbul’un bir noktasından diğer bir noktasına acil şekilde önemli bir evrak ulaştırmak gerektiğinde ya da hastanızın ihtiyacı olan ilacı acil ve güvenli bir şekilde ulaştırmak gerektiğinde, İstanbul moto kurye hizmetimizden faydalanarak sorununuza çözüm üretebilirsiniz.

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