Letrados de Las Cortes ven ahora imposible que el Gobierno tramite los Presupuestos de 2019 (EL Mundo)

El Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez se ha estrellado en el Congreso de los Diputados con un muro que impide nueva senda de déficit e incluso nuevos Presupuestos para 2019. Así lo aseguran ya letrados de Las Cortes consultados informalmente por grupos políticos tras la debacle. Los letrados opinan que se ha entrado en el bucle del artículo 15 de la Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria por el cual el Gobierno se ve obligado a presentar una senda de déficit y techo de gasto en el plazo máximo de un mes. Y así todos los meses hasta el infinito, porque será devuelto como ayer por el Congreso de los Diputados -salvo concesiones polémicas a los independentistas- y, si no, en todo caso, por el Senado del PP.Según el análisis informal de los letrados, no se puede tramitar ningún proyecto de ley de Presupuestos para 2019 sin haber cerrado antes el bucle. No se pueden discutir cuentas para el próximo año mientras esté abierto el trámite de la senda de déficit y el techo de gasto a los que se deben ajustar. La única forma de salir de esteDía de la Marmota sería cambiar la Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria. Pero se trata de una Ley Orgánica que sólo cabe modificar por mayoría absoluta y que requiere una larga tramitación sólo esquivable si el PSOE tuviera mayoría en la Mesa del Congreso y no es el caso.La ministra de Hacienda, María Jesús Montero, discrepa y asegura que sí es legalmente posible hacer los Presupuestos, pese al cataclismo, puesto que siempre está en vigor la senda de déficit aprobada por el PP y, por tanto, hay una base sobre la que elaborar las cuentas del año que viene. Aunque así lo defienda, siempre chocará con la mesa del Congreso en que bastará una consulta formal a los letrados por parte del PP y Ciudadanos -con mayoría en esta antesala del hemiciclo- para tumbar de inicio la tentativa.Además, el obstáculo no es sólo jurídico, sino también político. El resultado de la votación de ayer fue devastador para cualquier gobierno de la Eurozona que tramita una ley esencial: 88 votos a favor, frente a 173 en contra y con 86 abstenciones. La cuestión es con qué rostro votarían a favor esos 86 indecisos dentro de un mes la misma senda de déficit, ya que no podrá ser más expansiva, porque, según dijo Montero, es la más suave que ha aceptado -y está por ver- la Comisión Europea. Y yendo aún más allá ¿con qué argumento votarían a favor esos grupos de unos Presupuestos para 2019 más restrictivos que la senda que no han querido apoyar este viernes? Sólo podrían hacerlo, en el caso de los nacionalistas, exhibiendo concesiones del Gobierno central que dañarían las posibilidades electorales futuras del PSOE en toda España. El portavoz del Partido Popular ayer, Jaime de Olano, llamó al Gobierno a “no saltarse la ley” y el de Ciudadanos, Francisco de la Torre, ve ya “muy poco futuro” a cualquier intento de volver al Parlamento con la nueva senda o, menos aún, cuentas para el año que viene.En suma, Sánchez se ve abocado a seguir gobernando no ya con los Presupuestos del PP en 2018, sino con esos mismos prorrogados en 2019. También con la senda de déficit de Cristóbal Montoro en lugar que la impulsada por Montero y la ministra de Economía, Nadia Calviño. Fue por cierto impresionante ver a la hasta ahora moderada Calviño aplaudiendo puesta en pie a su compañera Montero mientras ésta abroncaba desde la impotencia a todos los grupos parlamentarios -menos al suyo y al PNV- por no apoyar su senda de déficit. Esa senda permitía 18.000 millones de euros más de gasto público a Sánchez en lo que queda de mandato hasta 2020, si es que lo agota. Sólo entre este año y el próximo deberá ahora renunciar a 11.000 millones de margen. Sin ese colchón adicional, difícilmente podrá aumentar lo que él llama «la agenda social» y que incluye más gasto para las comunidades en año electoral y menos ajuste en la Seguridad Social.Queda la alternativa de aumentar el gasto subiendo aún más los impuestos e intentando aún más flexibilidad de Bruselas, pero aunque todo eso fuera posible sin debilitar la economía, queda el veredicto final de los mercados. Un país con una deuda del 100% del PIB tiene que dar señales de solvencia. Justo lo contrario de ayer, que el Gobierno cosechó el doble de votos en contra que a favor de su hoja de ruta para sanear las cuentas públicas.

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