La productividad se estanca y deja en evidencia el modelo de crecimiento (El Confidencial)

La economía española crece —un 2,5% en tasa anual—, pero los viejos fantasmas no solo no han desaparecido, sino que, por el contrario, vuelven con fuerza. La productividad del trabajo acumula ya dos trimestres consecutivos estancada (0,0%), y lo que no es menos relevante, la productividad por hora efectivamente trabajada se hunde hasta el -0,4%, también por segundo trimestre consecutivo.
Eso quiere decir que el avance del PIB depende ya enteramente de la capacidad de creación de puestos de trabajo, lo que significa que, si se enfría el empleo, la economía sufrirá un frenazo.
Los datos aparecen en el avance del PIB correspondiente al tercer trimestre de este año, y ponen de relieve las dificultades de la economía española para transformar su patrón de crecimiento hacia otro de mayor valor añadido, y que hasta el pinchazo de la burbuja inmobiliaria estaba basado en el ladrillo. Una realidad que se manifiesta con crudeza en una comparación que deja en mal lugar a la economía española.

Mientras que en la media de la zona euro la productividad por ocupado se situó en 2017 en 66.520 euros en un año, en España apenas alcanza los 58.500 euros. Es decir, por debajo de los países con los que España compite en los mercados de bienes y servicios: Francia (77.792 euros), Alemania (66.310 euros) o, incluso, Italia, frecuentemente considerada una economía enferma, pero que es bastante más productiva que la española (63.583 euros por ocupado/año).

Tamaño de las empresas
Un reciente estudio publicado por Funcas —al igual que lo han hecho otros informes— constata que el tamaño de las empresas es un factor fundamental para explicar el diferencial de productividad. Según los profesores Huerta Arribas (Universidad Pública de Navarra) y Salas Fumás (Universidad de Zaragoza) la productividad media de las empresas no financieras en Alemania es un 36% superior a la de las españolas, pero en el colectivo de empresas con diez o más trabajadores la diferencia se reduce al 13%. Esto se explica, principalmente, por la menor proporción de empresas medianas y grandes en España que en Alemania.
Se trata de un viejo problema ya identificado por anteriores administraciones, y, de hecho, el último Gobierno anunció cambios legislativos que nunca llegaron. Está acreditada la existencia de normas reguladoras del mercado laboral y de la fiscalidad empresarial, que desaniman a ganar tamaño, ya que las empresas que superan un determinado umbral de dimensión, tanto en número de trabajadores como en facturación, experimentan un aumento en las cargas administrativas y fiscales que, por el contrario, evitan si se mantienen por debajo del umbral requerido.
El patrón de crecimiento, es decir, la composición sectorial del PIB, es otro de los factores que influyen de forma relevante en la productividad. Y lo que ocurrió en los años de la recesión (2008-2013) es que el sector de la construcción y la industria sufrieron más que el sector de los servicios. Como resultado de ello, el peso del valor añadido bruto del sector servicios aumentó del 70% en 2008 al 76% en 2013, como ha estimado el servicio de estudios de la Caixa.
Hay que tener en cuenta, sin embargo, y dado que los servicios tienden a mostrar un menor crecimiento de la productividad (es decir, la ratio del PIB sectorial de los servicios por trabajador crece relativamente menos), “un aumento del peso de los servicios contribuye a reducir la brecha entre el crecimiento del PIB y del empleo en el conjunto de la economía”. Es decir, crea más empleo, pero tiende a destruirse en periodos de bajo crecimiento o recesión, ya que es un sector más vulnerable a la caída de la demanda.

La comparación de los servicios con la industria es especialmente ilustrativa. El crecimiento acumulado de la ocupación entre el primer trimestre de 2014 (ya en la recuperación) y el mismo periodo de 2018 ha sido similar en ambos sectores (11,6% en la industria y 11,5% en los servicios), pero la evolución respectiva de su valor añadido bruto ha sido muy diferente: en el mismo periodo. Mientras que el sector de los servicios ha crecido un 10,6%, el sector industrial lo ha hecho en un 16,2%.
El resultado es desolador. Desde el año 1995, la productividad de la economía española únicamente ha aumentado un 4%, muy lejos del 11% de la eurozona o del 12% que se ha registrado en Alemania, donde, no por casualidad, se ha conseguido prácticamente el pleno empleo, aunque es verdad que con claros desajustes en el mercado de trabajo por la extensión del empleo precario: los célebres ‘minijobs’.

Inversión en intangibles
La economista Matilde Más (IVIE) ha identificado otras causas. En su opinión, la inversión en España tiene un sesgo hacia la inversión en capital tangible (viviendas, construcciones, maquinaria) en lugar de hacia las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) y otras formas de capital intangible, que integran el software, la investigación y el desarrollo o las actividades que contribuyen a aumentar el valor añadido de los bienes y servicios, como la publicidad, el diseño y la imagen de marca. Y, muy especialmente, la inversión que realizan las empresas en la formación de sus propios trabajadores y en introducir mejoras organizativas.
Según sus datos, mientras en EEUU, Suecia y el Reino Unido la inversión en activos intangibles representa más del 12% del PIB, en España es aproximadamente la mitad (6%). En EEUU, la inversión en intangibles supera a la inversión en tangibles y en el Reino Unido se aproxima.
Los problemas de productividad, en todo caso, no son un asunto genuinamente español. Como ha recordado la propia Comisión Europea en su último informe sobre los salarios en el conjunto de la región, mientras que en el periodo 2000/2007 la productividad del trabajo creció de media un 1,5%, entre 2008 y 2016 el incremento ha sido de apenas el 0,5%. Es decir, una tercera parte.

Los técnicos de la Comisión lo achacan a varios factores, como una ralentización de los procesos de innovación y difusión de las nuevas tecnologías, menor dinamismo empresarial, envejecimiento de la población y, probablemente, desajustes en las habilidades de los trabajadores en relación con las nuevas necesidades productivas.
Europa, sin embargo, y pese a la ralentización en los avances de productividad, ha podido defender su competitividad gracias a la moderación salarial. En 2017, en concreto, mientras que el crecimiento de los salarios reales (sin inflación) fue del 0,5% (el mismo ritmo que un año antes), la productividad avanzó algo menos del 1%, algo que explica la menor participación de los salarios en el reparto de la renta nacional.
En el caso de España, mientras que la productividad por ocupado lleva, como se ha dicho, dos trimestres estancada, los costes laborales unitarios (la relación entre empleo y productividad) se sitúa ya en el 1,1%, lo que supone una pérdida de competitividad. Aun así, con base 100 en el año 2010 (en medio de la primera recesión), los CLU se sitúan todavía en el 97,1%, lo que refleja una intensa moderación salarial que ha podido compensar los escasos avances en productividad, más intensos durante la crisis, pero a consecuencia de una enorme pérdida de empleo.

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