JUAN RAMÓN RALLO El valor intrínseco de bitcoin no es cero (El Confidencial)

¿Cuál es el precio justo o razonable de bitcoin? La pregunta debería ser fácil de responder: el valor intrínseco (o fundamental) de cualquier activo financiero surge de descontar al presente sus flujos de caja futuros. Si, por ejemplo, esperamos que un bono nos pague 1.000 euros anuales durante los próximos 10 años, su precio razonable será el valor equivalente, a fecha de hoy, de esas entradas anuales de 1.000 euros durante la próxima década (verbigracia, si usamos un tipo de interés del 2% como factor de descuento, el precio justo de ese bono sería de 8.982 euros).
Sin embargo, con bitcoin no podemos aplicar esta regla por una sencilla razón: bitcoin carece de flujos de caja futuros. Al igual que le sucede al oro, no promete entregar nada a su propietario: la única razón por la que se lo demanda hoy es para revenderlo más adelante. En apariencia, pues, estamos ante la receta perfecta para la creación de burbuja de expectativas autoalimentadas: compro hoy esperando que suba de precio mañana y los incrementos de precio actuales reafirman mi expectativa de que mañana seguirá subiendo de precio. Por esta razón, de hecho, algunos economistas sostienen que el precio razonable de bitcoin es cero (por ejemplo, Eric Tymoigne, adscrito a la poco rigurosa corriente de la Teoría Monetaria Moderna).

El problema de esta explicación es el de equiparar dos proposiciones que parecen idénticas pero que están lejos de serlo: en particular, que “bitcoin carezca de flujos de caja” no debería asimilarse a que “bitcoin carezca de utilidad”. Precisamente, bitcoin puede proporcionarle utilidad a su tenedor por la facilidad de revenderlo en el futuro con costes de transacción mucho más bajos que los de otros activos. Echando mano de Keynes (de su famoso capítulo 17 en La Teoría General), recordemos que todo activo puede proporcionar dos tipos de ventajas a sus tenedores: por un lado, un retorno explícito (por ejemplo, flujos de caja) y, por otro, un retorno implícito en forma de servicios de liquidez (la utilidad vinculada a su disponibilidad inmediata). Los activos monetarios suelen proporcionar un retorno explícito cercano a cero (en ocasiones, incluso negativo, como sucede ahora mismo con las letras del Tesoro alemanas) pero un considerable retorno implícito en forma de liquidez para efectuar intercambios minimizando los costes de transacción. Ese es el motivo que lleva a los agentes económicos a mantener parte de su patrimonio en forma de activos monetarios: están dispuestos a renunciar a los retornos explícitos que les proporcionan los activos financieros a cambio de disfrutar del retorno implícito en forma de liquidez que les proporcionan los activos monetarios.
Que bitcoin carezca de flujos de caja no debería asimilarse a que bitcoin carezca de utilidad
Bitcoin carece de retorno explícito —como sucede con el oro— pero sí posee un fuerte retorno implícito en forma de liquidez. Es cierto que, en términos generales, la liquidez de bitcoin es por ahora mucho menor que la del dólar o la del euro, pero ése no es un motivo suficiente para que concentremos toda nuestra demanda de liquidez en dólares o euros a expensas de Bitcoin. En esencia, por dos motivos: por un lado, la liquidez de bitcoin está creciendo conforme más personas la aceptan como medio de pago y conforme la volatilidad de su precio se reduce (en 2017, la volatilidad ha experimentado un cierto repunte en su volatilidad, pero sigue ubicándose muy por debajo de la de 2011 o 2012); por otro, la liquidez de bitcoin en ciertos contextos ya es mayor que la del euro o el dólar debido a sus características y diferenciales propiedades (por ejemplo, a la hora de efectuar transacciones internacionales sin pasar por el sistema bancario y, en consecuencia, sin dejar un rastro fácilmente rastreable y fiscalizable por los gobiernos).

Por consiguiente, en ciertos casos ya tiene sentido demandar bitcoins como activos monetarios incluso con preferencia frente al euro o al dólar: su rendimiento implícito en forma de liquidez ya es positivo. Y si su rendimiento implícito es positivo, entonces su valor intrínseco no podrá ser cero (de hecho, en el artículo anteriormente enlazado, Tymoigne sostiene que el precio justo de bitcoin es cero porque presupone, sin ninguna razón para ello, que la prima de liquidez por poseer bitcoins es cero). Sin embargo, mi impresión es que resulta harto dudoso que los precios actuales de bitcoin puedan justificarse por los servicios que en estos momentos ya está prestando la criptodivisa (si bien estoy abierto a que me convenzan de lo contrario). Bitcoin es útil pero hoy no es tan útil como para justificar una capitalización agregada de 250.000 millones de dólares que, en consecuencia, supera a las de Coca-Cola, Boeing, General Electric o incluso Walmart.
La liquidez de bitcoin está creciendo conforme más personas la aceptan como medio de pago y conforme la volatilidad de su precio se reduce
Ahora bien, ¿significa ello que el precio actual de bitcoin está condenado a desmoronarse? No necesariamente (como no lo estaba cuando superó el precio de 10 dólares, de 100 dólares o de 1.000 dólares), pues aquí es donde entra en juego la especulación acerca del futuro de bitcoin: muchos de quienes están invirtiendo hoy en la criptomoneda no lo hacen por el servicio de liquidez que les proporciona, sino por la expectativa de que los usuarios finales de bitcoin continúen aumentando. Es decir, muchos de los inversores en bitcoin están simplemente especulando acerca del papel que desempeñará bitcoin en la economía globalizada del mañana. Tal vez esos especuladores se equivoquen y, conforme se vayan dando cuenta de su errores, deshagan sus posiciones hundiendo el precio de bitcoin; pero tal vez dichos especuladores acierten (en los últimos siete años, no lo han hecho especialmente mal) y la demanda final de bitcoin —como proveedor de servicios de liquidez— continúe aumentando.
Por ejemplo, si la comunidad mundial de usuarios de bitcoin tuviera en el futuro un tamaño similar a la comunidad de usuarios del yen japonés (los japoneses representan menos del 2% de la población mundial y el yen constituye aproximadamente el 4% de las reservas internacionales de divisas), los precios actuales de bitcoin todavía podrían más que triplicarse. ¿Es descabellado que en 10 o 20 años más del 2% de la población mundial emplee habitualmente bitcoin como uno de sus activos monetarios de referencia? No diré que ese escenario sea totalmente inevitable, pero desde luego no es ni mucho menos improbable: y, si no lo es, los especuladores con algo de visión a largo plazo estarían haciendo muy bien en pujar por bitcoin.

Por supuesto, no todos los especuladores comparten esa visión largoplacista. Muchos de los que se han sumado recientemente al carro probablemente sólo busquen ganancias muy a corto plazo y, por tanto, deshagan posiciones en cuanto el precio de bitcoin se estanque o descienda (ya ha sucedido en numerosas ocasiones en el pasado): pero ese es un problema del todo secundario para la viabilidad a largo plazo de esta criptodivisa. Después del recalentón, permanecerán quienes velen por el largo plazo. Y es ahí dónde hemos de concentrar nuestra atención: sólo si creyéramos que el proyecto bitcoin está inevitablemente condenado al fracaso, que jamás va a servir para articular ninguna comunidad amplia de intercambios y que, en consecuencia, nadie la va a terminar demandando como activo monetario líquido, entonces su valor intrínseco terminaría siendo cero.
¿Es descabellado que en 10 o 20 años más del 2% de la población mundial emplee habitualmente bitcoin como un activo monetario de referencia?
Esa es la tesis, por ejemplo, del ex economista jefe del FMI Kenneth Rogoff, para quien los gobiernos terminarán aplastando bitcoin y sustrayéndole toda la utilidad monetaria que pudiera llegar a tener. Pero fijémonos en que el razonamiento de Rogoff no es que bitcoin sea inútil hoy, sino toda la contraria: bitcoin, en la medida en que permite burlar la fiscalización de los Estados, es tan sumamente útil como dinero que éstos terminarán usando toda su artillería coactiva para volverla inútil. Con este pronóstico, Rogoff no está especulando menos acerca del futuro de bitcoin de que lo hacen los especuladores alcistas en la criptodivisa: el primero le augura un negro futuro a bitcoin y los segundos un futuro brillante (la diferencia, eso sí, es que los especuladores alcistas invierten su capital en bitcoin, mientras que Rogoff no lo hace para apostar bajistamente contra bitcoin, esto es, Rogoff no tiene ninguna skin in the game). Lo que en todo caso ninguno de ellos disputa es que bitcoin tiene potencial como activo monetario y que, precisamente por ello, su valor intrínseco no es cero a día de hoy.

En definitiva, quienes siguen pronosticando la caída inexorable del valor de bitcoin, el pinchazo inevitable de su “burbuja” de precios, continúan sin entender que bitcoin es un activo monetario y que, por tanto, no se valora siguiendo los criterios convencionales del resto de activos financieros. Lo que se busca en los activos financieros convencionales son flujos de caja futuros (los cuales recibirán distintas valoraciones presentes según el momento en el que se espere que lleguen y según lo arriesgados que sean); lo que, por el contrario, se busca en los activos monetarios es liquidez y bitcoin posee muy buenas propiedades para proporcionar esa liquidez a sus tenedores. Distinto es el caso, claro, de que bitcoin, como activo monetario incipiente que es termine fracasando a la hora de estructurar una comunidad de pagos global estable y eficiente: si eso sucediera, se desmonetizará y su valor se desplomará. Pero que bitcoin pueda fracasar no es lo mismo que decir que necesariamente va a fracasar: y justo porque hasta ahora no ha fracasado, y porque tampoco hay razones de peso para afirmar que sólo puede fracasar, no puede sentenciarse arrogantemente que su valor intrínseco sea cero.
Bitcoin es una startup monetaria y, como toda startup con un potencial gigantescamente disruptivo, si triunfa proporcionará un elevadísimo retorno a quienes hayan apostado por ella; y, si fracasa, sus financiadores perderán la inversión. En todo caso, y dado el uso que ya se le está dando y el que se le puede llegar a dar como activo monetario, lo que sí deberíamos tener todos muy claro es que su valor intrínseco no es cero.

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