El Tesoro reduce a 40.000 millones de euros la emisión neta en 2018. El Tesoro prestará 15.000 millones a la Seguridad Social

Los objetivos del año que acaba de comenzar parten del cumplimiento exitoso de la estrategia fijada en 2017. La financiación neta se ha situado en 45.031 millones de euros, importe superior al previsto al incluir los 10.192 millones del préstamo otorgado a la Seguridad Social. Este préstamo no se tradujo en un aumento del déficit fiscal ni de la ratio deuda/PIB. Mientras, la emisión bruta se ha situado en 233.900 millones de euros.

El coste medio de las nuevas emisiones durante 2017 se ha mantenido cerca de mínimos históricos, al aumentar solo un punto básico (una centésima) frente al ejercicio previo, hasta el 0,62%. Por su parte, el coste de la deuda en circulación se ha reducido hasta el 2,55% al cierre de año, la cifra más baja de la historia reciente del Tesoro. El continuado descenso del coste medio, gracias al mantenimiento de la confianza en España por parte de los inversores, ha permitido la reducción de la carga financiera en términos de Contabilidad Nacional en un 12% desde el máximo alcanzado en 2014, lo que ha supuesto un ahorro de 3.567 millones de euros. La carga de intereses ha caído un 8,8% respecto al Presupuesto en 2017, lo que se ha traducido en un ahorro de 2.493 millones de euros.

A su vez, la vida media de la deuda en circulación ha aumentado desde los 6,20 años en 2013 hasta los 7,13 años en 2017, reduciendo el riesgo de refinanciación de la Deuda del Estado y la vulnerabilidad de la carga financiera ante la anunciada normalización de la política monetaria en la zona euro. La concentración de las emisiones en los plazos largos -las realizadas a 30 y 50 años representan aproximadamente un 11% del total emitido a medio y largo plazo en 2017- ha sido posible gracias a la elevada demanda de valores del Tesoro en todo el ejercicio.

La base de inversores del Tesoro continuó siendo diversificada. Las tenencias de no residentes se mantuvieron estables en el entorno del 42% del total. Incluso en los momentos de mayor tensión política en Cataluña, los inversores han seguido apostando por la fortaleza de la economía española. La ratio de cobertura de las emisiones (relación entre la cantidad demandada y la cantidad adjudicada), se ha situado en 2,14. El diferencial a 10 años frente a Alemania o prima de riesgo también se ha reducido, hasta moverse en torno a los 110 puntos básicos.

En 2018, el Tesoro mantiene los objetivos de reducción de coste, incremento de la vida media y diversificación de la base de inversores. Se reduce la apelación al mercado en términos netos, hasta 40.000 millones de euros. La financiación bruta ascenderá a 220.145 millones de euros, de los que 126.310 millones serán a medio y largo plazo, una cifra que supone 13.152 millones menos que en 2017. Por su parte, la emisión de Letras del Tesoro será negativa en 5.000 millones. Esto permitirá seguir alargando la vida media de la deuda en circulación y converger con otros países de la zona euro en lo que respecta al peso de las Letras sobre el total de títulos representativos de Deuda del Estado en circulación.

No se modificará la pauta en las subastas ordinarias de Bonos y Obligaciones del Estado nominales con cupón fijo. Como regla general, estas subastas ordinarias tendrán lugar el primer y el tercer jueves de cada mes. La emisión esperada en las subastas ordinarias se situará dentro del rango publicado sin tener que alcanzar el máximo anunciado, como ya se hizo en los ejercicios previos.

Este año el Tesoro va a continuar desarrollando su programa de Bonos y Obligaciones indexados a la inflación europea, que permite diversificar la base de inversores de la deuda española, incorporando una posible subasta de una referencia indexada en la primera subasta del mes. Este programa, iniciado en 2014, ha acumulado un volumen total de 41.803 millones de euros, incrementando progresivamente su peso en el total de la cartera de Deuda Pública, hasta superar el 4,3% del total de Deuda del Estado en circulación. El Reino de España se ha convertido en un emisor de referencia en este mercado, junto con Francia, Italia y Alemania.

Al igual que en años anteriores, el Tesoro recurrirá a sindicaciones bancarias para colocar determinadas referencias, aunque las subastas seguirán siendo el principal método de emisión de Deuda del Estado. Además, el Tesoro tendrá la opción de convocar subastas especiales, fuera del calendario habitual, para dotar de liquidez a ciertas referencias y mejorar así el funcionamiento del mercado secundario. Se prevé también la posibilidad de recurrir a colocaciones privadas, en las que se emite un valor directamente a un inversor, en condiciones favorables para los objetivos estratégicos del Tesoro.

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