El riesgo populista en España por la tensión migratoria pone en alerta a Bruselas (El País)

El repentino calentamiento del debate sobre migración en España, fomentado sobre todo por la nueva dirección del Partido Popular y por Ciudadanos, ha disparado las alarmas en la sede de la Comisión Europea. Un escalofrío recorre de arriba abajo el edificio Berlaymont ante la posibilidad de que otro socio de la UE caiga presa de un discurso populista muy difícil de apagar una vez que se propaga. “En estos momentos, no nos podemos permitir perder a España”, apunta un alto cargo comunitario ante la corriente populista, todavía muy tibia, que agita ciertas aguas conservadoras españolas.

La misma fuente recuerda la fragilidad actual de la UE, con un eje franco-alemán renqueante y socios de la talla de Italia, Holanda, Polonia o Hungría con Gobiernos titubeantes sobre el proyecto o abiertamente discrepantes. Todo ello unido a la primera escisión del club en 60 años de historia, con la salida del Reino Unido prevista para marzo de 2019.

“En la coyuntura actual, España, por su peso demográfico y económico, es una pieza fundamental para dar fuerza al bloque europeísta”, reconoce una fuente comunitaria, que confía en que el debate migratorio se calme y desaparezca de la agenda política española más inmediata.

Las primeras luces rojas en Bruselas se encendieron el pasado 29 de julio, cuando el nuevo presidente del PP, Pablo Casado, tuiteó: “No es posible que haya papeles para todos, ni es sostenible un estado de bienestar que pueda absorber a los millones de africanos que quieren venir a Europa”,

El tuit se interpretó como el primer síntoma de que el PP pretendía convertir la migración en uno de los ejes centrales de su oposición al Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez. Una estrategia que Ciudadanos ha mostrado que puede secundar. “Desde el Aquarius ha habido un giro del líder del PP para transformar la cuestión migratoria en una crisis”, señala Sergio Carrera, investigador del CEPS, un instituto de estudios con sede en Bruselas. Carrera considera que “la respuesta del Gobierno español ha sido correcta, poniendo las cifras en perspectiva y mostrando que no estamos ante una crisis”.

Pero las instituciones comunitarias prefieren prevenir. Y Bruselas inició de inmediato una contraofensiva para intentar demostrar que España no está sola ante el problema. Objetivo: evitar que partidos políticos del bloque central se contagien de una narrativa alarmista que alimente una deriva de la opinión pública hacia posiciones extremas.

“Si seguimos a los populistas, si adoptamos su lenguaje, los ciudadanos terminaran votando por la versión original”, advirtió el viernes a EL PAÍS, el comisario europeo de Migración, Dimitris Avramopoulous, solo unas horas antes de llegar a Madrid. “Los partidos tradicionales deben defender su terreno y seguir siendo leales a sus principios”, pedía el comisario, miembro de Nueva Democracia que, como el PP de Casado, forma parte del Partido Popular Europeo.

Los discursos incendiarios ya han arrastrado a buena parte del electorado en Francia, Holanda o Dinamarca y partidos con tendencias abiertamente xenófobas o ultranacionalistas ya se sientan en los Gobiernos de Italia, Austria o Finlandia. Dentro del PPE anidan ya formaciones que se desmarcan de la corriente principal y abogan por tesis hasta ahora defendidas solo por la extrema derecha.

La península ibérica se ha mantenido hasta ahora prácticamente inmune a los movimientos xenófobos y ultranacionalistas que campan a sus anchas por gran parte de Europa. Pero las primeras chispas han saltado en España tras el desplazamiento de las rutas migratorias en los últimos 18 meses hacia las costas españolas del Mediterráneo.

Bruselas intenta contener el contagio y el viernes Avramopoulos aterrizaba en la capital española con palabras de solidaridad y un nuevo cheque, de tres millones de euros, que eleva a 30 millones de euros la ayuda de emergencia para política migratoria concedida a España en un solo mes. La visita del comisario dejaba la incógnita sobre la efectividad de una inyección de dinero y buenas palabras que en Italia no bastó para evitar la llegada al poder de un partido ultranacionalista como Liga.

A tiempo todavía

Algunos comentaristas y analistas han valorado el polémico tuit de Casado como el inicio de un giro del PP español hacia las posiciones de Matteo Salvini, el ministro italiano del Interior y líder de Liga que ha prohibido la entrada en puerto a los barcos con emigrantes rescatados en el mar Mediterráneo.

Fuentes comunitarias y analistas en Bruselas no perciben una deriva tan radical en el principal partido conservador de España y confían en que “acompase su estrategia a las corrientes moderadas que dominan el PP europeo”.

Los analistas también apuntan al tradicional europeísmo de la opinión pública española, vacunada contra tentaciones autoritarias por tener muy reciente la dictadura franquista. Pero hasta los más optimistas reconocen que esa vacuna es temporal y pierde fuerza con el paso de los años, sobre todo, si la opinión pública percibe que los problemas europeos se han enquistado y solo se pueden atajar con soluciones nacionales, por precarias o fallidas que sean. Pasó en Italia. En Hungría. En Austria. Y Bruselas quiere evitar que pase en España.

¿PROBLEMA REAL O FICTICIO?
La inmigración pasó a ser una de las principales preocupaciones de los europeos a partir de 2014, según el centro de estudios de la Comisión Europea (EPSC), y desde entonces ha influido en procesos electorales en Alemania, Francia, Holanda, Austria o República Checa, así como en el referéndum sobre el Brexit. El EPSC recuerda, a pesar de la percepción general, los flujos migratorios a nivel mundial se mantienen estables desde 1991 y en la actualidad rondan los siete millones de personas anuales, cifra similar a la de hace 20 años. Pero el fenómeno presenta en Europa características que pueden alentar la sensación de invasión. Por un lado, coincide con un crecimiento natural muy bajo en la mayor parte de la UE e, incluso, negativo en 2018 en 13 de los 28 países del club.

Europa, además, se ha convertido en el principal destino de las personas desplazadas como consecuencia de conflictos armados o dramas humanitarios, cuyo número ha pasado de 28,8 millones de personas en 2012 a 40,3 millones en 2016. Entre 2014 y 2016, los países de la Unión tramitaron el 48% de las 6,7 millones de peticiones de asilo a nivel mundial, según los datos recogidos por el EPSC. La mayor oleada, consecuencia de la guerra de Siria, llevó a Europa más de un millón y medio de personas, con los varones entre 18 y 36 años como grupo ampliamente mayoritario, lo que también levantó suspicacias en ciertos países. La concentración también ha influido, con gran parte de los emigrantes dirigiéndose hacia las grandes ciudades. Pero quizá uno de los elementos más explotados por ciertos grupos políticos sea el apuntado por el EPSC: “persiste la percepción de que la migración está pobremente gestionada”. Una percepción que sí parece más real que ficticia a la luz de las sucesivas y frustradas tentativas de la UE de desarrollar una política común de inmigración y asilo.

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