El Gobierno teme un estancamiento del turismo ante el frenazo de los principales mercados (El País)

En 2017, un año extraordinario en todos los parámetros turísticos, llegaron a España casi 82 millones de turistas. De ellos, casi 42, más de la mitad, eran británicos, alemanes y franceses. El frenazo de estos tres mercados en 2018 (-2,2% en llegadas y un 3,1% en pernoctaciones agregadas) hace temer al Gobierno un estancamiento e incluso un descenso en alguna de las cifras turísticas para el tercer trimestre, el más importante del año.

Según el Informe Prospectivo del Turismo Internacional hacia España publicado este mes por Turespaña, para el tercer trimestre se espera un “crecimiento moderado o estancamiento” en la llegada de turistas, un “crecimiento moderado” del gasto y un “descenso o estancamiento” de las pernoctaciones. Que la balanza termine inclinándose más hacia el crecimiento moderado, el estancamiento o el descenso dependerá, dice el informe, del “comportamiento de los mercados que más peso tienen en el agregado internacional”. Y señala que las “previsiones menos halagüeñas son precisamente” las de Reino Unido, Francia y Alemania.

Así, prevé Turespaña que en el tercer trimestre los alemanes reduzcan un 5,1% sus pernoctaciones, pese a que augura un aumento del 3,1% de las llegadas y del 2,4% del gasto. En cuanto al mercado británico, el organismo cree que vendrán un 4,2% menos de turistas, pero que gastarán un 5,3% más y harán un 1,9% más de pernoctaciones. Mejores cifras prevé para Francia, tanto en turistas (+4,7%), como en gasto (+8,1%) y en pernoctaciones (+5%). En general, espera Turespaña un aumento del 2,4% en el número de turistas, de un 5,3% del gasto y del 1,1% en las noches de hotel.

Sin embargo, los datos de coyuntura hotelera del INE del mes de julio ya han dejado atrás las previsiones de Turespaña. El mes pasado, los extranjeros realizaron en los hoteles españoles 28,5 millones de pernoctaciones, un 2,2% menos, mientras que Turespaña, que publicó el informe antes de conocerse esa cifra, preveía 29,4 millones, casi un millón más. Por mercados, las pernoctaciones de alemanes cayeron un 11,4% y las de británicos, un 2,5%, mientras que las de los franceses aumentaron un 2,8%.

El INE no ha publicado todavía los datos de julio de llegada de turistas ni los de gasto, pero en el primer semestre, han caído las llegadas de alemanes (un 5,1%, hasta 5,1 millones) y de británicos (un 2% menos, hasta 8,4 millones), mientras que han venido un 1,43% más de franceses (4,8 millones). La cifra de gasto es la que mejor aguanta la desaceleración, con un aumento total del 4,2% hasta junio (38.944 millones). Sin embargo, ha caído el gasto de los alemanes (un 3,15%, hasta 5.207,6 millones), mientras que el de los británicos creció un leve 1,16% (7.693,3 millones), frente a un aumento del 14,56% de la primera mitad del año pasado. También crece el gasto de los franceses, un 3,96%, hasta 2.916 millones, si bien en junio del año pasado la tasa de crecimiento era del 8,49%.

José Luis Zoreda, vicepresidente del lobby turístico Exceltur, achaca la “desaceleración” del sector, sobre todo la de los mercados británico y alemán, mayor de la que esperaba, a la “vertiginosa” recuperación de Turquía, favorecida, además, en el corto plazo por la depreciación de la lira. Llama, no obstante, a “no caer en el derrotismo”, a “no ponerse nerviosos” ante posibles descensos y a “no caer en la tentación” de rebajar los precios, una reacción que ya está detectando en las ventas a los grandes mayoristas, que venden los productos con un año de antelación, en algunas zonas. “España debe competir por diferenciación, por calidad, no por precio”, advierte.

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