El Gobierno retrasará la presentación del Presupuesto por el veto al déficit (Vozpopuli)

El artículo 134 de la Constitución española dice literalmente que Gobierno tiene que presentar ante el Congreso de los Diputados los Presupuestos Generales del Estado al menos tres meses antes de la expiración de los del año anterior. Es decir, que el PSOE tiene la obligación de presentar las cuentas de 2019 en la Cámara Baja antes del 30 de septiembre de 2018, algo que parece difícil tras el bloqueo de los nuevos objetivos de déficit en el Congreso el pasado viernes.

El Congreso tumba el déficit y el Gobierno “reflexiona” si cambia la ley de estabilidad
Fuentes de Hacienda aseguran a Vozpópuli que el Ejecutivo ya está trabajando en la redacción del Presupuesto y que intentarán presentarlos en plazo, pero es casi una evidencia que la debilidad parlamentaria del Ejecutivo, que solo cuenta con 84 diputados, y los baches que ha encontrado en el camino en solo dos meses de mandato, complicarán bastante la tarea.

Lo cierto es que no sería la primera vez que las cuentas se presentan fuera de plazo. En septiembre de 2017 el Gobierno de Mariano Rajoy se saltó también el artículo 134 de la Constitución porque tampoco tenía apoyos suficientes para aprobar sus Presupuestos. Las cuentas se acabaron presentando en las Cámaras el 3 de abril, con seis meses de retraso. Y no se aprobaron definitivamente hasta finales de junio.

Hacienda insiste en que el bloqueo afectará sobre todo a las CCAA y a la Seguridad Social y no tanto al Estado

En cualquier caso, hay que tener en cuenta que el bloqueo de los nuevos objetivos de déficit no afecta mucho al Presupuesto de 2019, puesto que Hacienda había repartido casi todo el margen extra entre comunidades autónomas y Seguridad Social. Solo reservó una décima para el Estado, lo que se traduce en un recorte de 1.000 millones de un techo de gasto de 125.064 millones. Pan comido cuando uno se mueve en cifras tan elevadas.

De hecho, desde Hacienda insisten al resto de grupos que los más perjudicados del bloqueo serán las regiones y la Seguridad Social, que son las que tendrán que hacer más esfuerzos para llegar a las antiguas metas de déficit planteadas por el PP. De hecho, curiosamente se da la paradoja de que Murcia y Castilla y León, dos comunidades gobernadas por los ‘populares’, serán las que más notarán el cambio.

Las CCAA del PP
Murcia, uno de los bastiones del Partido Popular, acabó el año 2017 con un déficit del 1,51%. Y tendrá que reducirlo al 0,1% tras el rechazo, lo que implica un gran ajuste. Si se hubieran aprobado los nuevos objetivos que planteó el PSOE, la meta sería un 0,3% y suavizaría el ajuste. En Castilla y León pasa algo parecido, aunque de menor magnitud, puesto que la región acabó el año pasado con un desfase del 0,95%.

Madrid, otra comunidad fuerte del PP, también se verá afectada por el bloqueo, puesto que acabó 2017 con un déficit del 0,47%. Y Galicia y La Rioja, que podrían haberse librado de hacer ajustes este año, tendrán también que recortar si quieren llegar al 0,1%. A pesar de la situación, los consejeros de todas estas comunidades votaron en contra del margen extra que confería la nueva senda de estabilidad del PSOE en la última reunión del Consejo de Política Fiscal y Financiera (CPFF).

Hacienda y las CCAA se verán de nuevo las caras este martes en una nueva reunión del CPFF

Y este martes se verán de nuevo las caras con el resto de consejeros en un nuevo CPFF que, teóricamente, tiene que votar el reparto individual de los objetivos de déficit y en el que se notificarán las entregas a cuenta del Estado a las diferentes regiones para el año que viene. Ni siquiera el Gobierno tiene aún claro si se votará el objetivo antiguo (del 0,1%) o el que planteó el PSOE del 0,3%.

Lo que sí va a hacer el equipo de Pedro Sánchez es presentar la misma senda senda de consolidación en el Congreso dentro de un mes para cumplir lo que dice la Ley de Estabilidad, que da 30 días al ejecutivo de turno para presentar nuevos objetivos si los primeros son rechazados por las Cámaras, tal y como ha ocurrido. Pero parece poco probable que se apruebe.

No hay que olvidar que la propuesta del Gobierno sólo recibió recibido 88 votos a favor: los 84 diputados del PSOE y cuatro del PNV. El PP, Ciudadanos, UPN, Bildu, Foro Asturias y Coalición Canaria votaron en contra y Podemos, ERC, PDeCAT y Compromís se abstuvieron. Parece poco probable que el Gobierno sea capaz de dar la vuelta a esta votación en solo un mes sin modificar la senda planteada.

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