El coste del ‘procés’: Cataluña perderá 4.500 millones de euros y 80.000 empleos hasta 2019 Manuel Llamas (Libre Mercado)

España creció un 3,1% en 2017, encadenando ya cuatro ejercicios consecutivos al alza y tres con aumentos del PIB superiores al 3%, mientras que en 2018 y 2019 el avance se ralentizará hasta el 2,5% y el 2,3%, respectivamente, según las últimas previsiones de BBVA Research.

Sin embargo, si bien la economía española ha evolucionado de un modo acorde a como se esperaba, el caso de Cataluña constituye la gran sorpresa del pasado ejercicio debido al impacto negativo que ha supuesto el proceso separatista y, de hecho, todo apunta a que su factura también se extenderá a 2018 y 2019.

La celebración del referéndum ilegal del pasado 1 de octubre y la posterior declaración de independencia se tradujeron en un deterioro de la actividad económica catalana, especialmente en el sector turístico. Así, además de la reducción de las pernoctaciones hoteleras, del -1,4% en el cuarto trimestre -eliminando el efecto estacional-, también se ha producido una corrección en las tarifas del 2,5%. El grado de ocupación de los hoteles catalanes, por su parte, ha bajado tres puntos porcentuales con respecto al mismo período de 2016 y el ingreso medio por habitación disponible ha registrado un descenso del 13,9% intertrimestral.

Además, la pérdida de confianza de los agentes “podría retrasar la puesta en marcha de nuevos proyectos de inversión, lo que derivaría en una menor actividad” tanto en la segunda mitad de 2018 como en 2019, a la vista de la negativa evolución que ha registrado la inversión y la creación de sociedades mercantiles en los últimos meses, según los analistas de la entidad.


El procés, por tanto, ha supuesto un importante punto de inflexión en la economía de esta región, ya que Cataluña pasará de liderar el crecimiento a nivel regional de España a presentar la peor evolución del PIB, según las previsiones de BBVA Research. Las comunidades autónomas que más crecerán este año serán, además de las insulares, País Vasco y Navarra en el norte y Madrid y Castilla-La Mancha en el centro. A un ritmo menor, lo harán Asturias y Extremadura, “aquejadas por factores estructurales”, y, por último, en los puestos de cola se situarán Cataluña, la Comunidad Valenciana y Aragón, principales afectadas por el entorno de mayor incertidumbre política.

Y algo similar sucederá en 2019, donde no se descarta que continúe el contagio de la incertidumbre debido a la peor evolución del sector turístico y el prolongado deterioro de las perspectivas de empresas y familias. En concreto, frente al crecimiento del 4,2%, 3,6% y 3% registrado entre 2015 y 2017, el PIB catalán apenas avanzaría un 2,1% en 2018 y un 2% adicional en 2019, el menor avance de todas las CCAA.


En este sentido, cabe recordar que Cataluña fue, tras Murcia, la región que acumuló el mayor crecimiento del PIB durante la recuperación -de 2013 a 2016, último dato disponible-.


Sin embargo, Cataluña pasará a experimentar el menor avance del PIB per cápita entre 2018 y 2019 por culpa de las graves tensiones que ha generado el nacionalismo, tal y como muestra el siguiente gráfico.


En cuanto al coste concreto del procés, BBVA estima que restará entre 1 y 3 décimas al PIB de España tanto en 2018 como en 2019 -unos 6.000 millones de euros como máximo-, mientras que en Cataluña será mayor y podría situarse entre 3 décimas y 1,1 puntos porcentuales en cada uno de estos dos años -unos 4.500 millones en el peor de los escenarios-. Asimismo, esto podría provocar un efecto contagio en Aragón, La Rioja, Comunidad Valenciana o Baleares como consecuencia de los mayores lazos comerciales que poseen con Cataluña.

Por otro lado, en términos de empleo, “la desaceleración de la economía catalana supone también un cambio importante”: Cataluña creará 136.000 empleos hasta 2019 frente a los 215.000 del bienio 2016-2017. Es decir, 80.000 empleos menos durante este bienio.


En otro orden de cosas, según dicho informe, la tasa de paro podría empezar a rozar el paro friccional en 2019 o, por lo menos, el mínimo histórico en algunas comunidades. La tasa de paro regional se situará muy cerca del mínimo histórico (alcanzado en 2008) en Asturias, Baleares, País Vasco, Navarra y Aragón, “lo que podría resultar en una presión salarial al alza en estas comunidades”. Por el contrario, en Andalucía, Canarias y Castilla-La Mancha el paro no logrará situarse por debajo de la media histórica.

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