Contagio turco EMILIO ONTIVEROS (El País)

En algún momento de su encuentro en Doñana, uno de los dos mandatarios debió poner sobre la mesa las repercusiones sobre Europa del conflicto abierto entre Turquía y EE UU. Aunque no directamente vinculado al asunto central que reunió el pasado fin de semana a la canciller Merkel y al presidente Sánchez, los riesgos de contagio de esa crisis no suponen ahora un asunto menos perentorio que la intensificación de los flujos migratorios. Ese mismo viernes, además de la lira se desplomaron las bolsas de todo el mundo, pero en mayor medida las europeas, reflejando los posibles daños que ese nuevo frente de inestabilidad puede abrir en la eurozona, y más concretamente en su sistema financiero.

La imposición por EE UU de aranceles del 50% y 20% a las importaciones de acero y aluminio, respectivamente, es un golpe adicional a una economía maltrecha antes de que se agravara el contencioso en torno al pastor evangelista estadounidense detenido en Turquía en 2016. Tres desequilibrios eran susceptibles de propiciar una crisis como la manifestada ahora: inflación superior al 12%, déficit exterior superior al 6,5% del PIB y deuda exterior superior a los 350.000 millones de dólares, de los que 20.000 millones vencen este año y el próximo. Tras la intensa depreciación de la lira ahora son necesarias más liras para pagar préstamos y bonos en dólares o en euros.

Frente a ese cuadro, la actitud de Erdogan y su Gobierno criticando abiertamente las decisiones de su banco central, acelerando la erosión de las instituciones, no ha hecho sino intensificar la desconfianza de los inversores extranjeros. Las amenazas de Donald Trump han sido el alimentador de la espiral que puede conducir a crisis similares del pasado: encarecimiento del servicio de la deuda exterior, huida de capitales, deterioro de los activos bancarios, recesión, desempleo… No es extraño, por tanto, que dos de las tres agencias principales de rating ya hayan reducido la calificación crediticia de la deuda turca.

Son dos las vías principales de contagio a la estabilidad financiera global. A las economías emergentes con dependencias financieras similares a la turca, en primer lugar. En los últimos ocho años se han duplicado sus pasivos denominados en dólares en esos países. Ya hemos observado depreciaciones en otras monedas y activos de otros emergentes como los de Argentina o Sudáfrica, consecuentes con la pretensión de los inversores de compensar las pérdidas turcas o de buscar destinos más seguros.

La segunda vía de contagio es a los sistemas financieros de origen de los prestamistas. En realidad, el Mecanismo Único de Supervisión que conduce el BCE ya venía desde hace semanas acentuando su escrutinio sobre la exposición de los grandes bancos europeos, que disponen de un protagonismo destacado en el sistema financiero turco. El principal foco de atención, por el momento, es la sensibilidad al aumento de las insolvencias de préstamos en divisas, representativos del 40% de los activos totales de aquel sistema bancario. Depreciaciones adicionales de la lira erosionarán la base de capital de los bancos y, probablemente, la posición de liquidez de algunos de ellos.

Según el Banco de Pagos Internacionales, la mayor exposición es la de la banca española con más de una tercera parte de la del conjunto de la banca internacional. En especial la de BBVA, propietario del 49,85% del turco Garantí. El italiano Unicredit y el francés BNP le siguen.

Las medidas introducidas para neutralizar depreciaciones adicionales de la lira podrían tener una vigencia reducida. Y, en todo caso, su virtualidad dependerá de que la escalada de represalias, no solo económicas, no persista y no acentúen ese victimismo que está exhibiendo Erdogan, dentro y fuera de su país. La combinación de una crisis financiera en toda regla con sus evidentes y complejas ramificaciones geopolíticas aconseja que Europa actúe. Y, en ese contexto, que España, su diplomacia económica, si es que cabe todavía esa diferenciación, se centre mucho más en Europa. El presidente Sánchez ha hecho bien en revitalizar esos vínculos con el Gobierno alemán. Ahora toca poner ese imperativo asumido en la gestión de los flujos migratorios, reclamando también garantías para evitar nuevos episodios de inestabilidad financiera, que de intensificarse dañarían a España. Más vale que el FMI tenga un plan a punto para Turquía y que la diplomacia europea impida el veto que de hecho puede ejercer EE UU en esa organización multilateral.

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