Bitcoin, una mina a la deriva
El bitcoin, la moneda virtual más conocida, presenta un riesgo grave de crash monetario a corto plazo. La criptomoneda tenía una cotización de apenas unos céntimos en 2009; hoy se le atribuye un valor ligeramente superior a los 15.000 dólares por unidad. En los dos últimos años se ha revalorizado en un 2.500% —el 40%, en la última semana—, un porcentaje que está diez veces por encima del umbral que los analistas monetarios consideran definitorio de burbuja de riesgo; además, sufre oscilaciones de precios en el corto plazo que bien pueden definirse como volatilidad extrema. Existe un riesgo muy elevado de colapso del bitcoin que, según muchos economistas, tiene un valor real de cero. El bitcoin es hoy una mina a la deriva y casi todos los reguladores financieros advierten contra él.
Si finalmente se produce un crash —descartado por los defensores de la moneda— es necesario que los afectados acepten su responsabilidad y no recurran a los lamentos de rigor sobre la ausencia de avales o regulación, porque ya están advertidos. Para un inversor o ahorrador, los crecimientos especulativos desorbitados de un activo suelen constituir una advertencia; si además se producen periódicamente oscilaciones bruscas de precios, la advertencia se convierte en alarma. A pesar de tales indicios —y de que pocos de quienes mercadean con bitcoins conocen el fundamento de la moneda, la tecnología blockchain— algunas cadenas comerciales y mercados parecen dispuestos a admitir el bitcoin como medio de pago e inversión.
No hay motivo alguno para rechazar que el medio de pago del futuro sea una moneda virtual. Si del metal se ha pasado al plástico, bien puede pasarse ahora al bit. Pero cualquier sistema monetario debe contar con respaldo y regulación. Algún día las zonas monetarias emitirán su propia criptomoneda. Pero con cobertura de los Estados y garantía de los mercados. Ese no es el caso del bitcoin.
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