Apertura en Europa. PMI y una FED que avisa de la guerra comercial

La lectura de las actas de la última reunión de la FED está ofreciendo dos versiones. La primera es que es muy probable ver una nueva subida de tipos el mes que viene por la fortaleza de la economía de EEUU, pero la otra es que ya han hablado abiertamente en la reunión de los problemas para la economía que pueden traer las tensiones comerciales. Es decir, otra vez le dicen a Trump que no es el camino y que dañará a EEUU si sigue por ese camino. Claro, viendo esto, muchos ponen en duda que se puedan subir los tipos el mes que viene si las tensiones aumentan.

La cuestión es que la situación es compleja porque el desarrollo de los acontecimientos puede cambiar muy rápido en la esfera política y puede dejar a la FED con el pie cambiado, subiendo tipos y con la economía en un camino negativo si la tensión aumenta e incluso si se cumplen los peores pronósticos, así que en el mercado, que se da como hipótesis de base el camino alcista de los tipos, se está empezando a estudiar cuándo puede ser el momento de ver una bajada de los mismos. Recuerden que Goldman bajó la estimación de la rentabilidad a 10 años para EEUU, Reino Unido y Alemania para fin de año.

Tal como comentamos ayer al cierre, el mercado sigue teniendo mucha fuerza interna por los efectos de la reforma fiscal de Donald Trump que está haciendo que las empresas aumenten los dividendos y también aceleren y aumenten las recompras de acciones propias. Evidentemente, la gente tiene más dinero en el bolsillo por la rebaja fiscal, y eso se está notando mucho en las ventas de algunas minoristas, por lo que el fondo se mantiene positivo.

En España hay cosas interesantes, como por ejemplo el anuncio hace muy poco de que se ha llegado a un acuerdo para hacer que el Senado no pueda vetar los presupuestos, algo que nos parece preocupante porque no es positivo que a conveniencia se retiren poderes a una de las cámaras, ya que recuerda movimientos que se dan en otros países que no tienen una situación política positiva.

El siguiente punto interesante son los índices de directores de compra del mes de agosto, en donde todo el mundo estará muy atento para ver las perspectivas de actividad económica en los próximos meses.

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