Apertura de mercados en Europa. Donald Trump no nos da respiro

Se espera una apertura bajista en Europa como consecuencia del mal cierre de Estados Unidos en el día de ayer al aparecer una entrevista de Donald Trump en Bloomberg que vuelve a meter tensión comercial justo cuando el mercado había bajado la guardia.

La tensión en los mercados emergentes es otro problema que tenemos, especialmente los países con alta exposición a ellos, como puede hacer España, así que la evolución de sus monedas, y las actuaciones de la clase política en esos países, pueden generar titulares y dar los movimientos a lo largo del día.

En la entrevista a Donald Trump, dice que si la Organización Mundial de Comercio no se moderniza, el sacaría Estados Unidos de ella, lo que crea un nuevo frente en el comercio internacional, ya que fue Estados Unidos la que ayudó la creación de esa organización a finales del siglo pasado.

Además, con el mercado estaba muy contento con ese acuerdo preliminar con México, y el acercamiento de Canadá a Estados Unidos para no quedarse descolgado de las negociaciones en el Nafta, en dicha entrevista dice que la oferta de quitar los aranceles a los coches que ha hecho Europa no es suficiente, y además dice que está dispuesto y preparado para instaurar esos famosos 200.000 millones de dólares en aranceles a China en cuanto finalice la consulta pública de dicha medida el 6 de septiembre, por lo que parece que todos los cañones están apuntando ya y preparados para disparar, lo que dañó mucho a los mercados en el día de hoy.

Punto positivo en el apartado macroeconómico por parte del índice de directores de compra del sector de manufacturas de China que ha quedado mejor de lo esperado y subiendo, compensando un poco el susto que nos llevamos ayer tras esa encuesta de Reuters en donde se esperaba que en el tercer trimestre tuviésemos una desaceleración industrial por la guerra comercial.

La parte negativa del apartado macro nos lo da Alemania con unas ventas minoristas del mes de julio peores de lo esperado.

Con respecto a Francia, la lectura preliminar del mes de agosto de la inflación acelerara desde el -0,1% hasta quedar en un crecimiento del 0,5%. Los precios de producción industrial también aumentan del 0,1% hasta el 0,6% pero la interanual de la inflación se mantiene constante en el 2,3%, lo esperado.

En el apartado técnico, en los gráficos a 30 minutos con nocturno debemos tener mucho cuidado porque tanto el futuro del Ibex como el europeo están por debajo de la media de 200, el futuro del índice alemán se ha posado sobre esa media, y hay que vigilar si poco a poco se está buscando un cruce bajista de medias que siga alejándonos desde los máximos del rebote de este mes en donde dejamos una muestra de interés vendedor muy clara.

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